Brad Edwards, one of the top analysts on everything BCS and a college football researcher at ESPN, is gearing up for the first release of the BCS standings Sunday, Oct. 16. But first he, along with other top ESPN analysts, will preview the BCS in the first of nine BCS Countdown shows Sunday, Oct. 9, at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and 9 p.m. on ESPNU.
Edwards is also an analyst on College GameDay on ESPN Radio Saturdays from noon to 7:30 p.m. ET.
Give a quick synopsis of how you project the BCS standings?
Quite simply, there are eight pieces that go into the BCS formula – the coaches’ poll, the Harris poll and six computer rating systems which I project each of them separately every Saturday night. I’m am making an educated guess about how voters and computer programs will react to the game results and then plugging those numbers into a spreadsheet. It’s not nearly as complex as most people would think.
How did your interest in analyzing the BCS standings start?
When the BCS began in 1998, I was observing like everyone else. After a few weeks, I was able to predict most of the weekly movement by understanding cause and effect within the different elements of the formula. It was like solving a logic problem, which made it entertaining for me.
What is the most complex part of the BCS standings?
The computer rankings are hard to predict, and sometimes they’re just as tough to explain. They differ greatly from the polls because of the way teams are impacted by the results of their previous opponents. For example, when Toledo lost to Syracuse because of the controversial call, the voters probably gave no consideration to it, but it hurt Boise State (which beat Toledo) in the computers. The challenge is determining the full extent of the impact, because each computer weighs schedule strength a little differently.
Do you have a prediction for the teams playing in the National Championship Game?
The easy prediction is the SEC West champion against the Big 12 champ. My pick is Alabama vs. Oklahoma, because it would give us the least dramatic BCS race possible. That way, if I’m wrong, it will at least make my job more interesting.
Do you have any hobbies or interests outside of studying the BCS numbers?
I love to play golf. Anything that requires strategy, analyzing risk versus reward, is right up my alley. Unfortunately, not being able to hit a ball 300 yards minimizes both my risk and reward!
